Richard Mlynarik has provided a great analysis with the new ridership projection from VTA for the BART extension. You can enjoy a quick aerial photo tour of the proposed BART stations in the South Bay with actual stations in San Francisco and Berkeley, and see how out of touch VTA is.
From VTA Presentation Slide 13:
Alum Rock 9115
Civic Plaza/SJSU 6236
Market Street 17866
Santa Clara 14919
Total (7 stations) 83587
2030 projection (25% increase):
Alum Rock 10639
Downtown San Jose [combined stop] 23439
Santa Clara 19842
Total (6 stations) 104127
Current exits in Downtown San Francisco:
Civic Center 18463
Now VTA is not only applying the ridership numbers from Downtown San Francisco to Downtown San Jose, but in Milpitas as well. So far, Milpitas isn't planning to become another Downtown San Francisco. Is VTA expecting a huge percentage of that ridership to transfer to and from light rail on their way to the Golden Triangle? If that is the case, shouldn't VTA be supporting ACE/Caltrain Metro East instead since it will serve the Golden Triangle directly without having to transfer?
For a more apples to apples like comparison, the ridership projection for Milpitas, Diridon, and Santa Clara stations should not be too different than Balboa Park, Richmond, and Millbrae. They are all non-downtown stations but with rail connections. We also shouldn't forget that Muni Fast Pass holders get to ride BART free within San Francisco, where Balboa Park is the City's southern most station.
Balboa Park 12251
As expected, the projected ridership numbers are clearly meant to deceive.